One of my favorite books, The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, begins with a slightly hungover Arthur Dent waking up to the sound of a bulldozer warming to demolish his home in order to make way for a new hi-way. With little warning and few alternatives, Arthur takes the most reasonable course of action. He lies down in the mud in front of the bulldozer.

Holliston, MA is a relatively small town (est. pop 14,000) West of Boston that just awoke to the arrival of a massive (800,000 sqft) warehouse development project. Something odd happened last summer, when the trees at 555 Hopping Brook Rd were unceremoniously cut down with little explanation and no forewarning. Earlier this year, the intensions of CRG development became clear.

The industrial-zoned property is being groomed for a massive warehouse and distribution center. And while the eventual tenant is not currently known, The New York Times recently featured an article about Amazon’s expansion into small towns across America.

In response to the 555 Hopping Brook project, the residents of Holliston (and neighboring towns) organized a history of the project including the proposed impact studies submitted to the town for review. Some of the questions raised by residents include:

• What happens to home values and corresponding residential property tax revenue when a 800,000 square foot warehouse and an additional 474,500 total annual trips (1,300 average daily trips x 365 days) of tractor-trailers and other vehicles are added to our town?
• What is the expected cost of the road repairs from the additional 474,500 total annual trips of tractor-trailers and other vehicles?
• Do we have the adequate emergency services (fire and police) to support this development? If not, what is the cost of additional support?
• After all costs have been considered, what is the true economic impact of this project?

To date, the developer has offered to make minor improvements to a town road, such as adding additional signals and signage. The key financial benefit to Holliston is a proposed ~$1 million in additional tax revenue, about 1.2% of the total tax revenues currently received in 2019.

Town residents are now faced with a mix of anticipated risks (traffic, noise) and possible rewards ($1 million for town projects). And the decision on whether to move forward or not is a popular topic in the local Facebook Group:

If it’s not very explicitly laid out and guaranteed how tax revenues and town finances will be impacted, I see no reason to not fully expect more of the same run around..I believe the safe bet is having this facility will make it much LESS likely to be able to support the town infrastructure.

I would like to see a point where this town replaces its 52 year old high school and its dilapidated water system, without having to hear excuses about how we can’t pay for it..The developers are going to walk away, we’ll smugly claim some kind of victory, and we’ll have another two decades of indecision about how to pay for things.

Source: Holliston Residents posts on Facebook

One of the larger questions raised is whether a small, local government can even organize a response to a project of this size. With multiple committees and little precedent to follow, some members wonder who ultimately has the authority to approve or disapprove the project.

I spent several years as a Selectman, State Representative, and Chairman of the Zoning Board of Appeals. Since those days laws have changed, authority has shifted, and I have no idea where the power to approve or end this assault upon the town lies.

Source: Holliston Resident post on Facebook

As a Holliston resident, I feel a bit like Arthur Dent on that fateful morning when forces from beyond came to demolish his home. And as one who lives happily in analytical strategy for many waking hours of the day, the situation feels all to familiar: we have a bunch of imperfect metrics to describe an existential problem about which the general public has already baked an opinion. Oh…and it’s not really clear who’s going to make the final call or if there is even budget to find an answer.

Now we’re getting somewhere.

To-date, Holliston has focused on (and publicized) a number of cost drivers including increased traffic, noise, and burden on emergency infrastructure. Less attention has been given to other environmental factors such as air pollution or water management that directly impact residential health and wellbeing over longer periods of time.

When data is difficult to assemble, creating comparisons becomes even more challenging. Will the warehouse project feel like a power plant? A new mall? What are the measures that should be used to evaluate different development options? Unfortunately, many smaller towns view development with a scarcity mentality…this may be the only shot at a bright new future.

The central question is whether $1 million will exceed the additional costs created by the warehouse project, and by how much. How did the developer arrive at $1 million in the first place? While we know this amount is about 1.2% of the town’s budget, what is the expected value of goods that will pass through the warehouse? What is the geographic value of Holliston relative to other potential site? These are much more difficult questions to answer.

Stress on a system is also a learning opportunity. The Holliston project has forced a number of difficult questions, and Holliston is still reacting to a development proposal. Can small towns muster enough analytical horsepower to proactively define a range of beneficial opportunities using more than anecdotal evidence?

Holliston is one of potentially hundreds of towns that will be impacted by warehouse expansion. For this reason, and because of the range of data available, the 555 Hopping Brook development is our Hack The Future project this Spring. Take a look at the data, explore, and submit your thoughts on what the town of Holliston should do.