When will the COVID-19 ball drop? Another great post about the difficult choices being made by those who must communicate the future in highly uncertain times. What do you tell the American public when the best model isn’t enough?
COVID-19 predictions are multiplying at an infectious rate. Here are a few mathematical thoughts about the models used in forecasting…and why early predictions might miss the mark.
Always impressed by how Information Is Beautiful “packages” critical insights in accessible data visualization. This collection on the COVID-19 virus is both informative and timely, answering our most pressing questions about this pandemic.
“Warming Stripes” may be one of the most impactful visualizations of climate change. The colors reflect the scientific truth of warming, and are from the same palette as the American flag (red, white and blue), communicating the political imperative to act. What I especially appreciate about “Warming Stripes” is how, in the fine print, the methodology for collecting (and excluding) data is clearly disclosed. And, sadly, the movement to deny climate change has produced a counterfeit version of this visualization by only selecting the data points that support their opinion.
When should you escape the Navy and start a Pirate brigade? Does it really pay off in the long run? Organizations are good at purchasing tools and technology, but often struggle to recruit the right mix of people or recognize the level of change necessary to deliver on the promise of Analytics. If you are one of these recruits, eventually you will hit the limits of your crew and command. At some point you will spy clearer sailing and greater riches in a different direction. This is normal after you’ve been out to sea for a while, but it doesn’t make the challenge any easier.
The key question is whether you can turn the ship using the existing chain-of-command and spare parts, or whether adopting the Pirate code is the best path to greater treasures. And yes, the Pirate code is much more than wearing a patch and sporting a peg-leg.
How a Group of NASA Renegades Transformed Mission Control is an excellent case-study from the Sloan Management Review of how a small team of passionate engineers created a Pirate culture within NASA to deliver a major upgrade to technology credited with putting men on the moon. Key tenants of “the Pirate Paradigm” include:
The last bullet point, “Build a product, not an organization..” is especially critical for any aspiring, analytical Pirate. The ability to navigate the existing organization and engage others (with capacity) to help you build your Analytical vision is key. Common challenges include an over-dependency on familiar tools (or outright lock-in by vendors) and a fear of downstream (hidden) disruption. One approach to recruiting a crew is to clearly demonstrate (prototype) the value your solution will bring to their voyage.
Changing Company Culture Requires a Movement, Not a Mandate is a case-study in harnessing Pirate energy for broader cultural change. The article explores how Dr. Reddy’s, a pharmaceutical company in India, took an organic approach to cultural shift. Employees were given space to internalize and respond to a new corporate purpose, “Good health can’t wait,” with the goal “to demonstrate this idea in action, not talk about it.” The article encourages managers to “look for the places where the movement faces resistance and experiences friction. They often indicate where the dominant organizational design and culture may need to evolve.”
The “Pirate Paradigm” can be harnessed to drive change, but it’s important to ask yourself whether the result will grow beyond a single project. And a very pirate question is whether you will be rewarded given the typical swamp-march, riddled with quicksand, that characterizes cultural change in many organizations. Unfortunately, the new Analytical leader is often an unwitting Pirate who realizes too late that the value from data will never be achieved due to her small voice in the existing corporate culture. Single projects are delivered, but they are one-hit-wonders eventually lost at sea.
The good news is that analytical culture can be hacked by the Pirate Paradigm. With a strong thirst for innovation and smelling the value from positive cultural change, organizations are creating new and safer paths for aspiring Pirates to follow. Some are even starting to use analytics for measuring cultural alignment.
Creating a learning environment where your crew shares in the adventure, and the plunder, is one of the most effective ways for initiating a longer-term shift in Analytical culture. More on this topic in a subsequent post…for now, find your eye-patch and get ready to fly the Jolly Roger!
