COVID-19 predictions are multiplying at an infectious rate. Here are a few mathematical thoughts about the models used in forecasting…and why early predictions might miss the mark.
Asides
Warming Stripes: Data Viz in Action
“Warming Stripes” may be one of the most impactful visualizations of climate change. The colors reflect the scientific truth of warming, and are from the same palette as the American flag (red, white and blue), communicating the political imperative to act. What I especially appreciate about “Warming Stripes” is how, in the fine print, the methodology for collecting (and excluding) data is clearly disclosed. And, sadly, the movement to deny climate change has produced a counterfeit version of this visualization by only selecting the data points that support their opinion.
Funnels and Clusters: Vaccine Visualizations
Data on ways to avoid illness on an airplanes is very welcome this time of year….and good news about vaccines makes me feel even better (assuming people decide to get inoculated). Below are two visualizations from Beautiful News….The funnel graph illustrating reduced mortality rates is one of the more effective I’ve seen, although it’s not entirely clear whether the reduction is 100% attributable to vaccination or other factors. I was also surprised at the effectiveness of the bubble chart. Clustering by vaccine type, and the use of a single color of varying transparency, give a good general sense of which illness is receiving attention and how much relative progress has been made.
Are Commuter Benefits Effective?
An interesting perspective on our commuting choices is offered by the Boston Globe Spotlight Team. The data shows that most employers’ commuter benefits are ineffective in swaying workers’ decisions to drive or take mass transit in and around Boston. The reason offered is that driving to work is a deep cultural habit that is difficult to break.
While I agree that public transportation cannot match the comfort of one’s car, there are definitely larger issues with the system as a whole. Its outdated equipment, chronic delays, and an ineffective radial design may stand in the way of our desire to seek alternatives to sitting in traffic.
This curious Beautiful News page…
The other day Jesse drew my attention to this curious Beautiful News page. While the effort to focus on positive news and uplifting trends is greatly appreciated, some visualization might benefit from a little “Tuftefying” to better adhere to Tufte’s design principles for good visual information representation. An effective visualization should focus on the content by minimizing distracting architecture and maximizing the data-ink ratio, establish credibility by citing detailed sources, and avoid comparisons of areas of circles or other non-standard figures as well as unconventional directions for temporal data.